Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6A 0x6a5e…f178 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+4%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$14
14 days+$5
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$38
other 39% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -5.9% -14.9% 48% 39% -6.4%
≤30d 39 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 36% -9.3%
≤90d 41 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 37% -9.2%
all 41 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 37% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 37% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 29% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 24% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 17% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage33d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $25 +$8 +33%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$13 -86%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $33 +$14 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -93%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 +$27 +223%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$18 -78%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$9 -77%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$8 +110%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +136%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 +$6 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$5 +14%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -50%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $28 −$26 -93%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $33 +$5 +15%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $15 +$8 +51%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies May 28 $4 −$2 -70%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $32 +$13 +41%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $111 +$11 +10%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $26 −$2 -8%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $21 +$5 +25%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $24 −$5 -22%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $15 +$6 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $90 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 100¢ $11 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 95¢ $10 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 48¢ $17 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 35¢ $6 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 33¢ $2 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 40¢ $5 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 39¢ $6 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 12¢ $2 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL Scotland 13¢ $2 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $13 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 21¢ $3 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL Scotland 64¢ $16 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $8 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 67¢ $6 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 52¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.58 · official $89.58 (match) · 176 history records