Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a64…a496 weather 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%33W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$1
world 8% −$13
weather 4% +$2
other 1% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 93% 0% -10.3%
all 34 +0.7% -8.9% 97% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses33 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage190d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or below on May 27? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 3? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 16? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 20? May 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 15 $904 −$13 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 14? Apr 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 12? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? Apr 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 4°C or below on March 26? Mar 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on March 15? Mar 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on Marc Mar 14 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 11? Mar 11 $27 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 7? Mar 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $110? Mar 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will The Weeknd have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 23 $11 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 17 $1 $0 +18%
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025? Jan 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Jan 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 17 $10,000 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Jan 17 $116 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $41 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $46 7d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $47 8d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $45 20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 24d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or below on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $36 26d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $39 64d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $891 67d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $904 67d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $44 69d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $33 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 80d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 81d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 84d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 4°C or below on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $44 89d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on March 15? BUY No 100¢ $31 99d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 43°F or below on Marc BUY No 99¢ $42 101d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 103d
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 11? BUY No 98¢ $27 104d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 106d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 106d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $110? BUY No 100¢ $15 108d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 7? BUY No 99¢ $10 108d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $8 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 115d
Will The Weeknd have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY No 100¢ $11 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.38 · official $217.38 (match) · 85 history records