Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6A 0x6a67…a784 other 108 markets active 4h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24 (+18%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%50W / 56L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$9
14 days+$11
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$18
sports 19% +$2
crypto 12% −$4
politics 7% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +55.8% +41.0% 88% 75% +47.7%
≤30d 54 +14.2% +3.3% 41% 37% +4.0%
≤90d 106 +14.4% +3.5% 47% 41% +3.2%
all 106 +14.4% +3.5% 47% 41% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 41% +3.2%
10% -6.4% 36% -6.7%
15% -15.4% 31% -15.7%
20% -23.7% 26% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses50 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage66d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +106%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +162%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$5 +497%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 +$5 +509%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $2 −$1 -32%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $1 +$1 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 24 $1 +$1 +110%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $1 +$1 +125%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $1 +$1 +145%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $1 +$1 +128%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $1 +$1 +124%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $1 +$2 +159%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $1 +$1 +123%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $1 $0 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 31h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.85 · official $3.85 (match) · 234 history records