Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a68…2c01 crypto 443 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$615 (-11%) realized −$582 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%224W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$710
sports 10% −$33
other 9% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -39.6% -45.3% 44% 44% -5.1%
≤30d 9 -39.6% -45.3% 44% 44% -5.1%
≤90d 251 -20.4% -28.0% 49% 49% -20.1%
all 442 -15.8% -23.8% 51% 48% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 48% -20.5%
10% -31.1% 46% -28.1%
15% -37.8% 34% -35.1%
20% -43.9% 21% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$582
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses224 / 218
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)442 / 443
History coverage100d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 18¢ 9¢ $66 $33 −$33 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$13 -26%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $152 +$22 +15%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 −$2 -21%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$10 +20%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $499 +$63 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$2 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$2 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 28¢ $31 22m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 26¢ $66 59m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 12¢ $51 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 22¢ $23 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $37 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 53¢ $51 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 26¢ $41 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $16 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 38¢ $36 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $5 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 73¢ $174 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $51 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $101 2h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Heretics 33¢ $8 24h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 39¢ $10 25h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics 11¢ $10 26h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 26h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 53¢ $61 30h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 43¢ $51 30h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 85¢ $124 31h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $101 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $562 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $499 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.02 · official $33.02 (match) · 1111 history records