Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a69…c4c2 sports 126 markets active 4d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-5%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%49W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$107
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$90
crypto 17% −$35
other 13% −$17
finance 11% −$2
weather 5% −$2
culture 1% −$1
world 1% $0
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -42.9% -48.3% 34% 11% -37.4%
≤30d 62 -42.9% -48.3% 34% 11% -37.4%
≤90d 126 -37.6% -43.5% 39% 17% -26.6%
all 126 -37.6% -43.5% 39% 17% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 17% -26.6%
10% -48.9% 10% -33.6%
15% -53.9% 9% -40.0%
20% -58.4% 7% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses49 / 77
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage68d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$2 -25%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$17 -69%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $4 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$4 -45%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $25 −$13 -51%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 12 $7 −$2 -31%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$2 -26%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $8 −$2 -20%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $9 −$4 -46%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -29%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$10 -41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 −$4 -44%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$4 -56%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $12 −$1 -10%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $7 −$6 -87%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $126 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 −$4 -46%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $3 +$12 +458%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$6 +288%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$3 -14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $34 +$1 +4%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $7 +$1 +14%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$1 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $9 4d
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 67¢ $18 4d
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 27¢ $7 4d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY Ignite 12¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner BUY Wanted Goons 40¢ $4 4d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope BUY GG Boom 49¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner BUY F5 Esports 48¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Wanted Goons 45¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY F5 Esports 49¢ $13 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Boston Breach 29¢ $2 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Los Angeles Thieves 66¢ $5 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner BUY Boston Breach 25¢ $3 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 71¢ $7 4d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 56¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY Washed $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY XCLAN 20¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( BUY Yes $3 5d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( BUY Yes 18¢ $8 5d
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nemiga Gaming 43¢ $4 5d
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Inner Circle 49¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY Gatorian 79¢ $6 5d
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 27¢ $3 5d
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 67¢ $7 5d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 38¢ $10 5d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 52¢ $14 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.49 · official $212.49 (match) · 443 history records