Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a6a…4a4b crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35 (+9%) realized −$2 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$3
other 16% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -34.9% -41.1% 37% 37% -10.6%
≤30d 27 -34.9% -41.1% 37% 37% -10.6%
≤90d 27 -34.9% -41.1% 37% 37% -10.6%
all 27 -34.9% -41.1% 37% 37% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 37% -10.6%
10% -46.8% 37% -19.2%
15% -51.9% 33% -27.0%
20% -56.6% 30% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage5d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Down 59¢ 88¢ $76 $113 +$37 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $55 +$43 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $58 +$30 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$15 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $78 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $11 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $19 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.85 · official $108.98 · 40 history records