Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6A 0x6a6d…4448 other 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-6%) realized −$113 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%28W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days−$213
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$85
sports 24% −$86
crypto 21% −$106
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -5.9% -14.8% 49% 42% -19.5%
≤30d 53 +10.8% +0.2% 49% 42% -12.5%
≤90d 54 +11.1% +0.5% 50% 43% -12.3%
all 56 +15.2% +4.3% 50% 43% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 43% -12.5%
10% -5.7% 30% -20.9%
15% -14.8% 21% -28.5%
20% -23.2% 18% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses28 / 28
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions14
Markets (closed)56 / 70
History coverage316d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+43%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-47%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $162 +$27 +17%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 −$8 -13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$17 +17%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$7 -34%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$16 +16%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$1 -14%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $41 −$8 -21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 +$26 +32%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $8 $0 -6%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $88 +$16 +18%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 −$10 -42%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -25%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$9 +23%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 +$6 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $79 −$53 -67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$17 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $29 −$2 -6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $18 −$6 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$58 +475%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $16 13m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $189 52m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 2h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 59¢ $53 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $118 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 46¢ $13 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $20 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $29 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 42¢ $3 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 42¢ $3 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $29 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 44¢ $3 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 48¢ $10 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $59 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.32 · official $85.69 (match) · 175 history records