Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a74…80f4 world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$253 (-7%) realized −$251 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%34W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days−$475
30 days−$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$289
politics 10% −$81
finance 8% +$35
crypto 6% −$2
other 6% −$66
sports 2% −$21
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +35.8% +22.8% 100% 100% +12.6%
≤30d 29 -17.4% -25.3% 66% 38% -23.5%
≤90d 62 -25.0% -32.1% 55% 35% -20.5%
all 62 -25.0% -32.1% 55% 35% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 35% -20.5%
10% -38.6% 24% -28.1%
15% -44.5% 15% -35.1%
20% -50.0% 10% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$29 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)62 / 72
History coverage76d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 75¢ 89¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes $29 $18 −$11 (-37%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+96%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 50¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$20 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $30 +$23 +76%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $86 +$11 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $496 −$496 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $45 −$34 -74%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $35 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $12 +$3 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $112 +$19 +17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$5 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $152 +$46 +31%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $158 +$5 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $30 −$30 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $93 +$6 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $26 −$11 -40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $627 +$123 +20%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $12 +$8 +70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $10 +$8 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $515 +$28 +6%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $151 −$5 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 21 $41 +$11 +27%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 02 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 02 $20 +$13 +63%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 02 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 Apr 21 $20 +$5 +27%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 21 $60 +$10 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 14 $5 +$2 +41%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 14 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in Apr 14 $20 +$12 +59%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Apr 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $30 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $120 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $53 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $96 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $20 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 11d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $38 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $400 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $15 14d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 17d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $20 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 18d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 18d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 22d
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 23d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 23d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 23d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 24d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $30 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $40 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $90 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.77 · official $121.73 (match) · 167 history records