Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6A 0x6a76…49d6 other 39 markets active 7h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 39L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$7
other 32% −$5
tech 15% −$2
sports 12% −$2
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 39 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 39 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$772) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage87d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 15 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Se Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $984 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $1,007 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 16 $748 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 15 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Austria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Apr 14 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in April 2026? Apr 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 27 $164 $0 -0%
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Mar 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $157 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $113 7h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 7h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 7h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 7h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 7h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 7h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 7h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 8h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 8h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $30 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $1,015 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $990 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $773 3d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $254 3d
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,028 3d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,060 4d
Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Se SELL No 100¢ $45 4d
Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Se BUY No 100¢ $19 4d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,025 4d
Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Se BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records