Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a79…fba6 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$19
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$18
politics 28% −$18
sports 13% −$8
finance 8% −$5
crypto 8% −$8
culture 6% −$5
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 64 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 137 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 120
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage103d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $63 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $53 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $260 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $52 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $107 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $254 −$2 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $463 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $130 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $52 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $456 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $329 −$2 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $55 $0 -1%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $57 −$2 -3%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Will FULL SENSE win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 09 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $49 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $264 −$3 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $51 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $168 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $267 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $48 1h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $62 1h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $63 8h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $53 8h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $53 16h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 17h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 24h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 25h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 29h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $51 29h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 34h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $62 35h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $62 39h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $38 40h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $38 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $44 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $45 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $66 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $67 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $54 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $54 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $52 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $52 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $42 3d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.66 · official $47.66 (match) · 490 history records