Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a7d…582a sports 360 markets active 1d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$610 (-10%) realized −$610 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%224W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$45
14 days−$281
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$48
other 41% −$466
crypto 8% −$174
world 3% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +7.6% -2.6% 81% 58% -16.3%
≤30d 169 -0.5% -10.0% 73% 47% -20.5%
≤90d 359 -6.9% -15.8% 62% 48% -19.5%
all 359 -6.9% -15.8% 62% 48% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 48% -19.5%
10% -23.8% 36% -27.2%
15% -31.2% 29% -34.2%
20% -37.9% 23% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$610
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses224 / 135
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)359 / 360
History coverage48d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4 +$2 +60%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +7%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $32 +$8 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $19 +$4 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $46 +$3 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 −$3 -45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $40 +$3 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $17 +$2 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $27 +$7 +27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +172%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $14 +$1 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 25h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 25h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $4 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 41h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 69¢ $2 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O BUY 83¢ $2 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $2 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $7 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 85¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.36 · official $2.36 (match) · 772 history records