Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a80…d472 sports 565 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$349 (+1%) realized +$363 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%246W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$547est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$1,646
14 days+$662
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$134
other 0% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 +14.1% +3.3% 54% 53% +1.1%
≤30d 555 -0.7% -10.2% 44% 44% -9.6%
≤90d 555 -0.7% -10.2% 44% 44% -9.6%
all 555 -0.7% -10.2% 44% 44% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 44% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 43% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 39% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 35% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$44 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$960
Realized+$363
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses246 / 309
Est. fees paid−$547
Open positions10
Markets (closed)555 / 565
History coverage16d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Katie Boulter vs Tyra Caterina Grant Katie Boulter 69¢ 70¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Wimbledon WTA: Alexandra Eala vs Renata Zarazua Alexandra Eala 83¢ 84¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Wimbledon WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Daria Snigur Elina Svitolina 72¢ 72¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Matteo Berrettini Matteo Berrettini 77¢ 76¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Wimbledon WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 67¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Wimbledon WTA: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Maria Timofeeva Maria Timofeeva 71¢ 69¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Wimbledon WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Sofia Kenin Petra Marcinko 58¢ 56¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Wimbledon WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Eva Lys Diana Shnaider 67¢ 64¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Wimbledon WTA: Tereza Valentova vs Karolina Pliskova Tereza Valentova 47¢ 46¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Donna Vekic Donna Vekic 61¢ 58¢ $74 $71 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 248 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Francesca Jones vs Diane Parry Jun 29 $101 +$35 +34%
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 29 $101 +$77 +76%
Wimbledon WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Lilli Tagger Jun 29 $102 +$121 +119%
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 29 $101 +$43 +42%
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 29 $81 +$58 +71%
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 29 $81 +$30 +38%
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar Jun 29 $92 −$90 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Nuno Borges vs Tristan Boyer Jun 29 $81 +$27 +34%
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 29 $102 +$174 +171%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 29 $81 +$64 +79%
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 29 $81 −$80 -99%
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 29 $81 +$44 +55%
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 29 $184 +$132 +72%
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 29 $81 +$37 +46%
Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Max Basing Jun 29 $81 +$37 +46%
Brasov: Harold Mayot vs Andrej Nedic Jun 29 $81 −$4 -5%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 29 $82 −$80 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 29 $81 −$80 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $182 −$92 -51%
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 29 $82 −$80 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria Jun 29 $102 −$84 -83%
Wimbledon WTA: Leylah Fernandez vs Janice Tjen Jun 29 $102 −$10 -10%
Wimbledon WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Iga Swiatek Jun 28 $100 −$1 -1%
Wimbledon WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Katie Swan Jun 28 $101 −$9 -9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $204 −$100 -49%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 28 $62 −$61 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$68 +67%
Wimbledon WTA: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Sinja Kraus Jun 27 $102 −$8 -8%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $101 +$66 +65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $101 +$34 +33%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $102 +$131 +129%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 27 $101 −$6 -6%
Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 27 $101 −$11 -10%
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $101 +$50 +50%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Piracicaba: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 26 $101 +$51 +50%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $102 +$85 +84%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $101 +$55 +54%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $102 +$131 +129%
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $102 −$13 -13%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $101 +$64 +63%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $203 +$183 +90%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $101 +$72 +71%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Donna Vekic SELL Donna Vekic 59¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 37¢ $92 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Adolfo Vallejo 57¢ $81 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 72¢ $81 9h
Brasov: Harold Mayot vs Andrej Nedic SELL Andrej Nedic 51¢ $77 10h
Brasov: Harold Mayot vs Andrej Nedic BUY Andrej Nedic 52¢ $81 11h
Wimbledon ATP: Nuno Borges vs Tristan Boyer BUY Nuno Borges 74¢ $81 11h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 33¢ $82 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 55¢ $81 12h
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Ann Li 43¢ $81 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Arthur Rinderknech 58¢ $81 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 33¢ $82 13h
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 64¢ $81 14h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 67¢ $81 14h
Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Luca Van Assche 36¢ $82 14h
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Jenson Brooksby 68¢ $81 14h
Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Max Basing BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 68¢ $81 14h
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria SELL Yulia Putintseva 35¢ $5 16h
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria SELL Yulia Putintseva 35¢ $2 16h
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria SELL Yulia Putintseva 35¢ $3 16h
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria SELL Yulia Putintseva 35¢ $4 16h
Wimbledon WTA: Leylah Fernandez vs Janice Tjen SELL Janice Tjen 31¢ $92 17h
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria SELL Yulia Putintseva 35¢ $1 26h
Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Donna Vekic SELL Donna Vekic 59¢ $15 30h
Wimbledon WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Iga Swiatek SELL Iga Swiatek 85¢ $57 32h
Wimbledon WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Katie Swan SELL Katie Swan 49¢ $29 32h
Wimbledon WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Katie Swan SELL Katie Swan 49¢ $64 32h
Wimbledon WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Iga Swiatek SELL Iga Swiatek 85¢ $43 34h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 50¢ $102 36h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Humbert 67¢ $62 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $959.63 · official $959.66 (match) · 948 history records