Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a81…41c7 crypto 556 markets active 0h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$343 (-6%) realized −$339 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%248W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$44
14 days−$67
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$431
other 5% −$30
world 0% −$11
tech 0% −$8
culture 0% −$1
sports 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -29.7% -36.4% 33% 29% -29.7%
≤30d 104 -20.7% -28.2% 41% 37% -25.5%
≤90d 144 -19.9% -27.5% 42% 36% -26.8%
all 529 -8.9% -17.6% 47% 40% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 40% -17.9%
10% -25.4% 31% -25.8%
15% -32.6% 24% -33.0%
20% -39.2% 19% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$339
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses248 / 281
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)529 / 556
History coverage199d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 529 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 48¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+48%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 43¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-20%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 21¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-25%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +70%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -43%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -55%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +75%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -84%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$5 +114%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +192%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 -48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -35%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -90%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -65%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $11 +$6 +57%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -17%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -24%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +130%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5m
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 15h
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? SELL OpenAI 2¢ $0 15h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 15h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 16h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 16h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $12 16h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 16h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 16h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 16h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 25h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 34h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 34h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 37h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 37h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 38h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.12 · official $75.12 (match) · 2071 history records