Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a83…4c59 world 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$153,025 (+49%) realized +$154,215 · open −$1,190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%99W / 50L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,993per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$8,276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$621
7 days+$7,407
14 days+$1,200
30 days+$1,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$91,366
other 4% +$1,996
sports 1% +$55
finance 0% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +37.2% +24.1% 80% 70% +57.5%
≤30d 35 -1.6% -11.0% 46% 40% -8.6%
≤90d 58 -7.6% -16.4% 47% 40% -2.1%
all 149 +52.9% +38.4% 66% 54% +19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.4% 54% +19.6%
10% +25.1% 42% +8.1%
15% ← realistic here +13.0% 36% -2.3%
20% +1.9% 30% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,642) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +79% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,099 vs −$275 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.08 per $1 lost it wins $8.08
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$8,276
Realized+$154,215
Unrealized−$1,190
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses99 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions10
Markets (closed)149 / 156
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$1,993
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $3,297 $3,544 +$247 (+7%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 81¢ 99¢ $2,700 $3,310 +$610 (+23%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 43¢ 13¢ $2,266 $684 −$1,582 (-70%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $562 $418 −$144 (-26%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $181 $161 −$20 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $18 $76 +$58 (+325%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $38 $6 −$32 (-85%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 6¢ 0¢ $300 $2 −$297 (-99%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $29 $1 −$28 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 17 $17 +$811 +4723%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3,986 +$558 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $430 +$143 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $86 +$125 +144%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,211 +$5,880 +183%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $267 +$20 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $51 +$49 +97%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $74 +$56 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $484 +$78 +16%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $124 −$122 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $259 +$34 +13%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 08 $170 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $1,437 −$974 -68%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 08 $428 +$61 +14%
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 08 $300 −$71 -24%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $153 −$119 -77%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 08 $34 +$4 +12%
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Jun 08 $10 $0 -5%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $617 −$231 -37%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $13,462 −$692 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $17 +$25 +150%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $495 −$457 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $31 +$7 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $3,119 −$479 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4,777 −$545 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2,653 −$165 -6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2,608 −$2,607 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $451 −$63 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $270 −$191 -71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $105 −$105 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 27 $92 −$92 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $218 +$210 +96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $468 +$386 +82%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $640 −$262 -41%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $2,806 +$166 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $8,709 −$801 -9%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $600 +$80 +13%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $212 +$76 +36%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Wizards vs. Lakers Apr 08 $121 −$121 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $177 −$48 -27%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31? Apr 08 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 08 $142 +$110 +77%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $3,700 +$1,845 +50%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $16,859 +$6,388 +38%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $4,715 +$639 +14%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $6,179 +$487 +8%
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Apr 01 $2,985 +$515 +17%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 29 $3,417 −$18 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $77 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $35 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $48 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $159 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $64 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $32 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $45 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 53¢ $66 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 50¢ $125 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 50¢ $62 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 94¢ $644 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 92¢ $773 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 92¢ $284 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $91 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,241 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $67 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,122 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,084 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $582 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,275.59 · official $8,275.59 (match) · 3500 history records