Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a84…43cb sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$385 (+11%) realized +$362 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%22W / 16L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$237
7 days+$335
14 days+$335
30 days+$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$175
other 22% +$208
politics 6% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +35.3% +22.4% 57% 46% +1.8%
≤30d 37 +35.6% +22.7% 57% 46% +2.5%
≤90d 37 +35.6% +22.7% 57% 46% +2.5%
all 38 +36.2% +23.2% 58% 47% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.2% 47% +5.4%
10% +11.5% 45% -4.7%
15% +0.7% 37% -13.9%
20% -9.2% 34% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$27 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$723
Realized+$362
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses22 / 16
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage592d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 92¢ $699 $723 +$23 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $160 +$15 +10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $501 +$25 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $59 +$5 +9%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $36 +$12 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $89 +$11 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 +$12 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $591 +$30 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$94 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $58 +$19 +32%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$25 +249%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$22 +73%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -5%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$73 +474%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$64 +53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$58 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 +$77 +137%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $58 +$37 +64%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$41 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$17 -69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$20 -80%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -64%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$30 +596%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $199 +$120 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $702 46m
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Haiti 100¢ $176 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $526 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 91¢ $160 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 56¢ $64 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $501 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $48 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $36 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $59 4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $36 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $620 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $591 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $35 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $29 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $58 34h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 34h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $53 34h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 36h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 36h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $32 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $722.93 · official $722.93 (match) · 70 history records