Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a84…8094 weather 831 markets active 6h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$121 (-5%) realized −$113 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%178W / 643L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$9
14 days−$55
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 71% −$138
other 13% +$69
sports 11% −$21
crypto 2% −$26
world 2% −$36
finance 1% +$4
culture 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +0.7% -8.9% 22% 22% +1.9%
≤30d 245 -8.8% -17.5% 18% 18% -23.0%
≤90d 633 -7.4% -16.3% 22% 20% -17.9%
all 821 -4.9% -14.0% 22% 19% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 19% -15.6%
10% -22.2% 19% -23.6%
15% -29.7% 18% -31.0%
20% -36.6% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses178 / 643
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)821 / 831
History coverage158d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 33¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +260%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +482%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +482%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 12 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +321%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$7 +633%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 37h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.41 · official $33.33 (match) · 2950 history records