Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6A 0x6a8a…4972 crypto 2339 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$158 (+3%) realized +$159 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%1098W / 549L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day70.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$218
14 days+$512
30 days+$759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$736
other 13% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 514 +43.4% +29.7% 75% 75% +25.8%
≤30d 1492 +29.5% +17.1% 68% 68% +9.4%
≤90d 1647 +26.8% +14.7% 67% 67% +6.2%
all 1647 +26.8% +14.7% 67% 67% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.7% 67% +6.2%
10% ← realistic here +3.8% 67% -4.0%
15% -6.3% 67% -13.2%
20% -15.5% 67% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$159
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1098 / 549
Open positions132
Markets (closed)1647 / 2339
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 132 History 1647 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 51¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 368 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 26m
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.18 · official $138.69 (match) · 3500 history records