Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:05:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6a8d…50f9
weather · 501 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,026 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,516 · open +$475
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,411
Realized−$3,516
Unrealized+$475
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses118 / 265
Open positions235
Markets (closed)383 / 501
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day877.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 235 History 383 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,501
7 days−$3,516
14 days−$3,516
30 days−$3,516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 5¢ 26¢ $68 $316 +$249 (+368%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $25 $185 +$160 (+630%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 25¢ $52 $141 +$88 (+169%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Yes 17¢ 32¢ $70 $132 +$62 (+89%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $58 $123 +$66 (+114%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 37¢ $25 $120 +$95 (+376%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $68 $115 +$48 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Yes 28¢ 46¢ $68 $110 +$43 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? No 64¢ 100¢ $69 $107 +$39 (+56%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 62¢ 100¢ $64 $103 +$39 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 66¢ 100¢ $68 $102 +$34 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? No 67¢ 100¢ $65 $97 +$32 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? No 63¢ 100¢ $60 $95 +$35 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? No 70¢ 90¢ $68 $87 +$20 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $68 $87 +$19 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? No 79¢ 100¢ $67 $86 +$18 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $64 $85 +$22 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? No 64¢ 78¢ $65 $79 +$14 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 76¢ 100¢ $58 $76 +$18 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $68 $75 +$8 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? No 65¢ 74¢ $66 $75 +$9 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? No 70¢ 76¢ $67 $73 +$6 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 72¢ 78¢ $67 $73 +$6 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 68¢ 73¢ $68 $73 +$5 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? No 62¢ 66¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 10? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 27? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -69%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 30? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 27? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 27? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 27? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C or higher on June 5? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? Jun 13 $68 −$65 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 27? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 27? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 29? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 1? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 1? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $34 −$34 -101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$2,133
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $19 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $22 13m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $4 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 16m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 23m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $6 27m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 31m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $25 37m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $17 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? SELL No 82¢ $11 55m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $4 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 383 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 31% -38.7%
≤30d 383 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 31% -38.7%
≤90d 383 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 31% -38.7%
all 383 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 31% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover877.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 31% -38.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 26% -44.6%
15% -31.9% 16% -49.9%
20% -38.6% 12% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,410.73 · official $7,410.13 (match) · 3500 history records