Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a8d…2550 weather 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,032 (-7%) realized −$1,058 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$37
14 days−$148
30 days−$991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$836
politics 39% $0
other 14% −$97
weather 6% −$106
sports 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -35.0% -41.2% 56% 6% -15.2%
≤30d 28 -26.9% -33.9% 57% 4% -23.9%
≤90d 33 -22.8% -30.1% 52% 3% -16.4%
all 33 -22.8% -30.1% 52% 3% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 3% -16.4%
10% -36.8% 3% -24.4%
15% -42.9% 3% -31.7%
20% -48.5% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$73 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$1,058
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)33 / 42
History coverage47d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $71 $75 +$4 (+6%)
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 97¢ 98¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 99¢ 99¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 100¢ $16 $36 +$21 (+132%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $33 −$26 -80%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $94 +$3 +3%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $63 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $14 +$5 +36%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $81 −$11 -13%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $46 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $95 −$47 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $75 −$74 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $97 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,255 −$530 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,725 −$226 -13%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,015 −$86 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 11 $1,726 −$38 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $1,162 −$41 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $15 $0 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $4,997 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $6 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $33 9h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 13h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 20h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 33h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 40h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 73¢ $14 2d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 99¢ $71 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $32 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $48 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $43 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $77 5d
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 86¢ $70 5d
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 98¢ $81 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect BUY No 97¢ $71 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 93¢ $71 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 89¢ $68 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $63 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 98¢ $75 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $50 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $71 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? SELL Yes 51¢ $48 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.93 · official $334.93 (match) · 129 history records