Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a93…8815 sports 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$121 (+3%) realized +$127 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%48W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$288
14 days+$288
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$250
finance 20% +$15
crypto 13% +$188
world 12% +$21
other 6% +$137
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +72.3% +55.9% 68% 68% +41.1%
≤30d 34 +72.3% +55.9% 68% 68% +41.1%
≤90d 52 +40.3% +27.0% 60% 58% -13.7%
all 78 +30.8% +18.3% 62% 51% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.3% 51% -5.9%
10% +7.0% 49% -14.9%
15% -3.3% 46% -23.1%
20% -12.8% 40% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses48 / 30
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions14
Markets (closed)78 / 92
History coverage99d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 58¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Colombia 23¢ 24¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$9 +172%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$7 +216%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +216%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 +$4 +365%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 +$18 +146%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$7 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16 +$14 +93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $12 −$11 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$17 +226%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$13 +140%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $22 +$8 +33%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$11 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $13 −$12 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$37 +456%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $34 +$16 +45%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 +$11 +119%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$22 +276%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 +$14 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 +$40 +134%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $92 +$63 +68%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 +$29 +178%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 28 $30 −$11 -38%
Grizzlies vs. Bulls Mar 28 $94 −$94 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nets Mar 28 $95 −$95 -100%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 28 $96 −$96 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 28 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 28 $40 +$33 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 28 $20 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$19 +190%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 28 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $23 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $6 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $7 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $57 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $14 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $12 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $7 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $29 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $53 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $4 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 23¢ $26 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $11 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $74 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $43 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $49 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $12 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $6 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $3 24h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 25¢ $3 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $6 24h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $1 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $6 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $12 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.32 · official $504.33 (match) · 224 history records