Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6A 0x6a94…34c7 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$886 (+255%) realized +$886 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +172% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +146% what you keep after slip
Net edge+146%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days+$882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$931
politics 24% −$3
sports 13% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+145.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -11.0% -19.5% 0% 0% -19.2%
≤30d 6 +171.5% +145.6% 33% 17% +220.3%
≤90d 6 +171.5% +145.6% 33% 17% +220.3%
all 6 +171.5% +145.6% 33% 17% +220.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +145.6% 17% +220.3%
10% +122.1% 17% +189.7%
15% +100.7% 17% +161.7%
20% +81.0% 17% +136.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +254% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +172% · $-wt +254% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$468 vs −$14 · ×33.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.94 per $1 lost it wins $16.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$886
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage17d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champio Jun 24 $24 −$4 -16%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 11 $81 +$933 +1150%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 10 $83 −$3 -4%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 09 $83 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records