Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a98…d27e other 45 markets active 2d ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$264 (-64%) realized −$181 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$125
sports 26% −$100
culture 6% −$25
politics 2% −$8
world 1% −$6
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-74.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -68.7% -71.7% 24% 16% -64.1%
≤30d 25 -68.7% -71.7% 24% 16% -64.1%
≤90d 26 -62.6% -66.1% 27% 19% -55.6%
all 39 -71.7% -74.4% 21% 15% -85.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.4% 15% -85.6%
10% -76.9% 13% -86.9%
15% -79.1% 5% -88.2%
20% -81.2% 5% -89.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)39 / 45
History coverage306d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $168 $90 −$78 (-46%)
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next gaming YouTube video? Yes 81¢ 44¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Texas" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Will anyone say "Summer" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +15%
Will anyone say "Sleep" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Will anyone say "Bird" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will anyone say "President" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E4 S9 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rick and Mort Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will anyone say "Suck" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will anyone say "Idiot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 15+ times during his next video? May 11 $4 +$4 +92%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30? Sep 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: September Sep 08 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50-60 million views on week 1? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60-70 million views on week 1? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Saturday? Aug 17 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Aug 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Aug 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? Aug 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Zelensky in Alaska by Sunday? Aug 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next gaming YouTube vide BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will anyone say "Sleep" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will anyone say "Bird" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will anyone say "President" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E4 S9 BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "President" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rick and Mort BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY No 56¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 7¢ $2 3d
Will anyone say "Suck" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 7¢ $4 3d
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 1¢ $1 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 0¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 7¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Bird" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Summer" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "President" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Idiot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 5¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 3¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.64 · official $105.64 (match) · 77 history records