Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6a98…3dfa world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$3
sports 33% −$1
other 32% −$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.6% -5.4% 62% 12% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +1.7% -8.0% 35% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 35 +1.1% -8.5% 37% 3% -9.5%
all 39 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage98d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $87 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 +$2 +39%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $43 −$2 -4%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $79 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $86 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $41 +$3 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $4 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $72 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $16 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -12%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $258 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $293 −$2 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $262 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $264 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $8 $0 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $280 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $262 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $13 −$1 -9%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $26 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $46 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $40 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $8 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $21 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.76 · official $45.75 (match) · 167 history records