Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a9b…44cc other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,093 (-49%) realized −$1,093 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$709
14 days−$657
30 days−$657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$1,106
sports 10% +$80
crypto 6% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.5% -8.1% 64% 64% -49.8%
≤30d 12 +5.9% -4.2% 67% 67% -44.7%
≤90d 12 +5.9% -4.2% 67% 67% -44.7%
all 15 +8.0% -2.3% 67% 67% -56.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 67% -56.0%
10% -11.6% 53% -60.2%
15% -20.2% 47% -64.0%
20% -28.0% 33% -67.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$275 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,093
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage230d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $0 $0 +103%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $101 +$44 +43%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 +$31 +62%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $147 +$36 +25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $801 −$654 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $61 +$38 +63%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $120 −$59 -49%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$113 -82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $97 +$53 +54%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 24 $18 +$8 +45%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $9 +$9 +104%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? Nov 03 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 1h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY 49¢ $0 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $4 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 42¢ $5 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 24h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 24h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $49 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $183 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $147 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $147 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 6d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 38¢ $61 6d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 6d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $81 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $702 6d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $31 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $26 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $25 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $138 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $97 7d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 210d
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 211d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03? BUY Yes 34¢ $500 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $9.00 · 33 history records