Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6a9b…1316 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+48%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +60.4% +45.1% 40% 40% +34.1%
≤30d 10 +60.4% +45.1% 40% 40% +34.1%
≤90d 10 +60.4% +45.1% 40% 40% +34.1%
all 10 +60.4% +45.1% 40% 40% +34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.1% 40% +34.1%
10% +31.2% 40% +21.3%
15% +18.5% 40% +9.6%
20% +6.9% 40% -1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$14 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$8 +377%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records