Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

6A 0x6a9b…abec crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$183 (+7%) realized +$183 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate81%17W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$132per market

Trades / day41.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-6.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+3.1%	-6.8%	81%	48%	-10.4%
≤30d	21	+3.1%	-6.8%	81%	48%	-10.4%
≤90d	21	+3.1%	-6.8%	81%	48%	-10.4%
all	21	+3.1%	-6.8%	81%	48%	-10.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover41.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.8%	48%	-10.4%
10% ← realistic here	-15.7%	29%	-19.0%
15%	-23.8%	14%	-26.8%
20%	-31.3%	10%	-34.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$111 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$183

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)81%

Wins / losses17 / 4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$132

Trades / day41.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 21	$330	−$327	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 21	$297	+$33	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 21	$281	+$11	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 21	$264	+$21	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 21	$230	+$32	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 21	$173	+$53	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 21	$101	+$77	+76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 21	$98	+$5	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 21	$174	−$87	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 21	$71	+$7	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 21	$153	+$52	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$4	-73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 21	$133	+$14	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 21	$132	+$5	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 21	$93	+$45	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 21	$76	+$17	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 21	$45	+$31	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 21	$30	+$6	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 21	$35	+$3	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 21	$32	+$4	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$330	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$331	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$297	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$291	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$281	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$286	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$264	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$131	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$99	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$226	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$173	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$178	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$103	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$98	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$86	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$71	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$103	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$78	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$71	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$205	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$153	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$133	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$137	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$132	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$138	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$93	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records