Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6A 0x6a9d…0b38 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$725 (+33%) realized +$706 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$561
other 23% +$168
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +28.5% +16.3% 71% 71% +25.7%
≤30d 14 +28.5% +16.3% 71% 71% +25.7%
≤90d 14 +28.5% +16.3% 71% 71% +25.7%
all 14 +28.5% +16.3% 71% 71% +25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 71% +25.7%
10% +5.1% 71% +13.7%
15% -5.0% 71% +2.7%
20% -14.3% 57% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$100 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$706
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 52¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 56¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$60 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $228 +$204 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$42 +42%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $101 +$71 +70%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $233 +$178 +76%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $152 +$131 +86%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$142 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $203 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $101 4h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $101 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? A BUY 17¢ $25 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 30h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U BUY 43¢ $51 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $228 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $101 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $101 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $102 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $102 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $233 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $152 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $102 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.00 · official $323.08 · 29 history records