Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6aa5…7059 sports 304 markets active 3h ago coverage 42d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,646 (-4%) realized −$1,660 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%183W / 119L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day54.9pace
Fees−$571est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$260
14 days−$434
30 days−$2,562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$2,081
world 9% −$121
crypto 4% +$35
politics 1% −$88
other 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -15.8% -23.8% 61% 19% -19.0%
≤30d 276 -8.5% -17.2% 62% 45% -18.6%
≤90d 302 -7.2% -16.1% 61% 44% -14.4%
all 302 -7.2% -16.1% 61% 44% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 44% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 30% -22.6%
15% -31.4% 17% -30.1%
20% -38.2% 8% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$77 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$1,660
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses183 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$571
Open positions2
Markets (closed)302 / 304
History coverage42d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day54.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jessica Pegula 37¢ 40¢ $148 $162 +$14 (+9%)
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres Pablo Martinez Gomez 43¢ 42¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 20 $30 −$10 -32%
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Victoria Bosio Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $104 +$223 +216%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $148 +$162 +109%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $118 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $90 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $137 +$10 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $122 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$4 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $38 +$25 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $68 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $97 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$4 +5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $10 +$21 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $64 +$5 +8%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$19 +39%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$1 +24%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$3 +24%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 14 $132 +$4 +3%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Iva Primorac vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $35 −$3 -8%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$34 -84%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 13 $61 +$28 +46%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $40 −$32 -80%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes Jun 13 $99 −$76 -77%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $58 +$121 +208%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $273 +$252 +92%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 12 $40 −$36 -88%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $306 −$283 -92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $111 −$80 -72%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $60 +$19 +31%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $236 +$474 +201%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Victoria Bosio BUY Victoria Bosio 43¢ $12 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 37¢ $151 2h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti SELL Sofia Rocchetti 30¢ $21 2h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 43¢ $1 2h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 43¢ $1 2h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 44¢ $1 2h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 43¢ $1 2h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 43¢ $1 2h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 43¢ $2 2h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 42¢ $1 3h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 42¢ $1 3h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 42¢ $1 3h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 42¢ $1 3h
ITF Lourinha: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Tiago Torres BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 42¢ $1 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 36¢ $1 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 36¢ $1 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 36¢ $3 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 36¢ $1 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 36¢ $1 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 36¢ $5 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 36¢ $1 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 36¢ $2 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 35¢ $10 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 35¢ $2 3h
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 34¢ $2 3h
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Victoria Bosio BUY Victoria Bosio 50¢ $3 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $44 28h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Susan Bandecchi 28¢ $1 28h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Susan Bandecchi 29¢ $2 28h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Susan Bandecchi 29¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.85 · official $174.85 (match) · 2564 history records