Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6aa6…b2b0 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$55
sports 3% +$39
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +16.1% +5.1% 52% 52% -11.7%
≤30d 23 +16.1% +5.1% 52% 52% -11.7%
≤90d 23 +16.1% +5.1% 52% 52% -11.7%
all 23 +16.1% +5.1% 52% 52% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 52% -11.7%
10% -5.0% 48% -20.2%
15% -14.2% 43% -27.9%
20% -22.6% 22% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$40 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $164 −$163 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $121 +$51 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $173 +$71 +41%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $81 +$32 +39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $74 +$41 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$24 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $103 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $145 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 34h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 45h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $46 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $59 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.23 · official $157.23 (match) · 52 history records