Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

6A 0x6aae…91c6 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$597 (-30%) realized −$605 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate29%5W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$99per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$127

7 days+$127

14 days+$127

30 days+$127

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-52.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-7.6%	-16.4%	40%	40%	+28.5%
≤30d	5	-7.6%	-16.4%	40%	40%	+28.5%
≤90d	5	-7.6%	-16.4%	40%	40%	+28.5%
all	17	-47.1%	-52.2%	29%	24%	-30.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-52.2%	24%	-30.5%
10%	-56.8%	24%	-37.1%
15%	-60.9%	24%	-43.2%
20%	-64.8%	24%	-48.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -47% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -46% → late -48% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$90 vs −$69 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage

Net worth$308

Realized−$605

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses5 / 12

Open positions3

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage222d

Avg bet$99

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	75¢	76¢	$150	$153	+$3 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	47¢	48¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	Yes	15¢	16¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$202	+$147	+73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$51	+$52	+101%
Switzerland leading at halftime?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$13	−$12	-97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 14?	Nov 13	$30	−$30	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 13?	Nov 13	$63	−$63	-100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?	Nov 13	$50	−$47	-94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 11?	Nov 11	$110	−$110	-100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Nov 11	$100	+$68	+68%
Eagles vs. Packers	Nov 11	$50	−$50	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 11?	Nov 10	$50	−$50	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 11?	Nov 10	$200	−$200	-100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Nov 09	$174	+$8	+5%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Nov 09	$100	−$100	-100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Nov 09	$110	−$110	-100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$305	+$176	+58%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY No	1¢	$10	51m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar?	BUY Yes	15¢	$51	52m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL Yes	68¢	$101	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	1h
Switzerland leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	34¢	$51	2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	11¢	$13	2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	75¢	$151	2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	15¢	$51	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	65¢	$152	2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$30	216d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 13?	BUY Yes	13¢	$13	217d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 13?	BUY Yes	21¢	$50	217d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?	SELL Yes	0¢	$3	217d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 11?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	219d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 11?	BUY Yes	25¢	$100	219d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	SELL Yes	96¢	$168	219d
Eagles vs. Packers	BUY Packers	44¢	$50	219d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 11?	BUY Yes	16¢	$50	219d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 11?	BUY Yes	54¢	$200	219d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?	BUY Yes	8¢	$50	220d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	BUY Yes	57¢	$100	220d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	SELL T1	100¢	$481	221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY T1	40¢	$5	221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	59¢	$100	221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	1¢	$10	221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	57¢	$100	221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	2¢	$10	221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	5¢	$50	221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	SELL T1	91¢	$182	221d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.86 · official $307.86 (match) · 42 history records