Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:12:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6aaf…ae2b sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-3%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$9
world 34% $0
other 16% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.9% -17.5% 0% 0% -17.6%
≤30d 12 -8.9% -17.5% 0% 0% -17.6%
≤90d 12 -8.9% -17.5% 0% 0% -17.6%
all 12 -8.9% -17.5% 0% 0% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 0% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 0% -25.4%
15% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
20% -39.2% 0% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -6%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -8%
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) Jun 27 $10 −$1 -6%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Argentina? Jun 27 $10 $0 -2%
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) Jun 27 $10 −$1 -11%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $10 $0 -2%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nina Radovanovic vs Anja Stankovic Jun 27 $10 −$2 -17%
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra Jun 27 $10 −$1 -8%
ITF Gdansk: Weronika Ewald vs Gina Feistel Jun 27 $10 −$2 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $64 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? SELL No 82¢ $9 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? SELL No 94¢ $10 7h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 41¢ $9 14h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 52¢ $9 14h
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) SELL Shandong Taishan FC 81¢ $9 20h
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $9 22h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Argentina? SELL No 99¢ $10 23h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $10 23h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Argentina? BUY No 100¢ $10 23h
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) SELL Shandong Taishan FC 21¢ $9 23h
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) BUY Shandong Taishan FC 22¢ $10 23h
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) BUY Shandong Taishan FC 84¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY No 85¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? BUY No 97¢ $10 23h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $10 23h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nina Radovanovic vs Anja Stankovic SELL Nina Radovanovic 49¢ $9 23h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nina Radovanovic vs Anja Stankovic BUY Nina Radovanovic 56¢ $10 23h
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra SELL Keshav Chopra 57¢ $9 23h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 23h
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra BUY Keshav Chopra 59¢ $10 23h
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 23h
ITF Gdansk: Weronika Ewald vs Gina Feistel SELL Weronika Ewald 29¢ $8 23h
ITF Gdansk: Weronika Ewald vs Gina Feistel BUY Weronika Ewald 34¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.65 · official $62.65 (match) · 25 history records