Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6ab1…54e1 sports 83 markets active 10h ago coverage 715d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$390 (+1%) realized +$390 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%52W / 31L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$594
7 days+$141
14 days−$438
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$261
crypto 5% −$443
politics 3% +$1,195
other 3% −$55
economics 0% +$34
world 0% −$100
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.6% +15.5% 36% 36% +2.4%
≤30d 21 +14.1% +3.3% 43% 43% -13.2%
≤90d 21 +14.1% +3.3% 43% 43% -13.2%
all 83 +2.0% -7.7% 63% 41% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 41% -8.9%
10% -16.6% 31% -17.6%
15% -24.6% 17% -25.6%
20% -32.0% 13% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$139 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

715d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$390
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses52 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage715d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$251 +246%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$268 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $104 +$159 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $106 +$44 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $93 −$91 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $233 −$229 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $216 +$107 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $654 −$307 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $102 +$169 +165%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $104 +$165 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +26%
Sam Altman in jail by December 31? Dec 04 $500 +$4 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 04 $200 +$34 +17%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 04 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 04 $200 −$176 -88%
Nets vs. Bucks Nov 30 $175 −$119 -68%
Raptors vs. Hornets Nov 30 $6,723 −$1,440 -21%
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Nov 30 $4,543 +$190 +4%
Suns vs. Thunder Nov 29 $56 −$29 -52%
76ers vs. Nets Nov 29 $4,700 +$272 +6%
Wizards vs. Pacers Nov 29 $99 +$2 +2%
Knicks vs. Hornets Nov 27 $4,606 +$42 +1%
Bucks vs. Heat Nov 27 $30 +$20 +67%
Hawks vs. Wizards Nov 27 $102 +$22 +22%
Pistons vs. Celtics Nov 27 $206 +$157 +76%
Magic vs. 76ers Nov 26 $102 −$37 -36%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Nov 25 $26 −$5 -20%
Rockets vs. Suns Nov 25 $50 −$5 -9%
Pistons vs. Pacers Nov 25 $4,455 +$54 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Nov 25 $1,199 −$169 -14%
Knicks vs. Nets Nov 25 $37 −$19 -51%
Lakers vs. Jazz Nov 24 $30 +$28 +95%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Nov 24 $1,975 +$23 +1%
Magic vs. Celtics Nov 24 $4,059 +$146 +4%
Heat vs. Bulls Nov 24 $342 +$38 +11%
Heat vs. 76ers Nov 23 $40 −$1 -2%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 23 $200 +$9 +4%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Nov 22 $536 −$136 -25%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Nov 22 $170 +$30 +18%
Nets vs. Celtics Nov 22 $785 −$267 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 17h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $61 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $353 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 37h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $370 37h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 38¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 66¢ $205 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 40¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 21¢ $53 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? SELL Up 100¢ $150 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 70¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 70¢ $35 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 70¢ $61 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down $29 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 11¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 12¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 12¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 12¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 12¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 12¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 12¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 12¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 13¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 13¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Down 13¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 415 history records