Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ab4…a81b sports 666 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$25,920 (+6%) realized −$365 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate94%631W / 39L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$637per market
Trades / day106.0pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,971
7 days−$2,414
14 days−$1,819
30 days−$823
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$3,404
other 20% −$582
tech 1% +$82
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -3.9% -13.0% 93% 2% -11.5%
≤30d 616 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 670 +1.5% -8.2% 94% 5% -9.5%
all 670 +1.5% -8.2% 94% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 2% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -25.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$739) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0.7126480423351963% → late 3.6736093306061% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$142 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$365
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses631 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions3
Markets (closed)670 / 666
History coverage32d
Avg bet$637
Trades / day106.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 670 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Málaga CF to win the second half? No 99¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Second half draw? Yes 99¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
UD Almería to win the second half? No 99¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 Over 98¢ 0¢ $943 $0 −$943 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 99¢ 0¢ $289 $0 −$289 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Nets: 1H O/U 109.5 Under 87¢ 0¢ $1,201 $0 −$1,201 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $292 $0 −$292 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 56¢ 0¢ $1,648 $0 −$1,648 (-100%)
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Draw at halftime? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
CA Rosario Central vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 99¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $943 −$976 -104%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $289 −$300 -104%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 14 $1,201 −$1,520 -126%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4PM ET Jun 14 $292 −$292 -100%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$143 -5786%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: UD Almería 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $54 $0 +1%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $266 +$2 +1%
CD Unión La Calera to score first vs. CF Universidad de Chile? Jun 14 $51 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $470 +$5 +1%
CF Universidad de Chile to score first vs. CD Unión La Calera? Jun 14 $76 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2,733 +$3 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3,251 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3,222 +$29 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $297 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2,552 +$23 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3,124 +$3 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $305 +$3 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $61 +$1 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $770 +$7 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $139 +$1 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $390 +$4 +1%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $54 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2,740 +$7 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $3,338 +$30 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $495 +$4 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $169 +$2 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $297 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1,485 +$13 +1%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $729 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $741 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $76 +$1 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3,228 +$29 +1%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3,017 +$4 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $219 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2,744 +$40 +2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3,168 +$27 +1%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $388 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $676 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: UD Almería 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $55 3m
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 4m
Málaga CF to win the second half? BUY No 99¢ $5 13m
UD Almería to win the second half? BUY No 99¢ $5 13m
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Second half draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 13m
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 14m
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: UD Almería 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $54 14m
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $268 1h
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $266 1h
CD Unión La Calera to score first vs. CF Universidad de Chile? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
CF Universidad de Chile to score first vs. CD Unión La Calera? SELL Yes 99¢ $77 1h
CF Universidad de Chile to score first vs. CD Unión La Calera? BUY Yes 98¢ $76 1h
CD Unión La Calera to score first vs. CF Universidad de Chile? BUY No 98¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 100¢ $2,733 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $7 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $19 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $404 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $82 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3,169 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,564 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,687 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,251 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $575 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $495 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $41 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.57 · official $7.58 (match) · 3500 history records