Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ab4…02d6 crypto 69 markets active 6h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,811 (-78%) realized −$3,603 · open −$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 48% −$2,097
crypto 41% −$1,435
world 4% −$89
other 4% −$107
politics 1% −$36
sports 1% −$38
weather 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-81.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -91.3% -92.1% 0% 0% -95.2%
≤90d 28 -71.3% -74.0% 7% 7% -76.2%
all 65 -79.1% -81.1% 3% 3% -82.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.1% 3% -82.8%
10% -82.9% 3% -84.4%
15% -84.6% 3% -85.9%
20% -86.1% 3% -87.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -84% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$58 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$3,603
Unrealized−$208
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 63
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage188d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $192 $107 −$85 (-44%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $92 $46 −$46 (-50%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $68 $7 −$61 (-90%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $6 −$16 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 26 $71 −$66 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 26 $13 −$7 -56%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? May 16 $20 −$16 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10? May 08 $23 −$22 -94%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 08 $30 −$7 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 05 $34 −$14 -42%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 27 $42 −$41 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 27 $14 −$12 -88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 22 $19 −$11 -59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Apr 22 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 18 $56 −$20 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 21? Apr 15 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 29 $8 −$8 -99%
Kings vs. Hawks Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 29 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Mar 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 20 $50 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 20 $24 +$37 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31? Mar 20 $449 −$402 -90%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. Timberwolves Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Feb 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $117 −$36 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Jan 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $255 −$255 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $948 −$948 -100%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 28 $247 −$243 -98%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Dec 28 $16 −$14 -88%
Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Dec 28 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $56 −$51 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $96 5h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $33 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 33h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $23 33h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $168 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 14d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $72 15d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 22d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 22d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $64 22d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 31d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 31d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 40d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 40d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 42d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $2 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 59d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? SELL Yes 0¢ $36 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.50 · official $165.50 (match) · 125 history records