Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ab5…7fde crypto 468 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$226 (+2%) realized +$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate67%310W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$196
sports 3% +$41
weather 2% −$7
other 2% +$5
politics 1% +$110
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -9.0% -17.6% 65% 35% -10.1%
≤30d 188 -8.4% -17.1% 68% 34% -9.6%
≤90d 410 -7.8% -16.6% 65% 33% -9.8%
all 466 -8.3% -17.1% 67% 31% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 31% -9.9%
10% -25.0% 20% -18.5%
15% -32.2% 16% -26.4%
20% -38.9% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses310 / 156
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)466 / 468
History coverage140d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$7 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $61 −$7 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $61 −$6 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$6 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$10 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$8 +75%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $100 −$7 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $21 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $58 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 35m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 38m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $58 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $10 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $12 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.80 · official $14.80 (match) · 1065 history records