Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ab8…d621 sports 475 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized +$10 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%243W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days+$101
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$528
other 26% −$93
world 15% +$57
politics 6% +$514
finance 5% +$5
tech 4% −$124
crypto 3% +$74
culture 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +2.9% -6.9% 59% 50% -12.0%
≤30d 117 +9.3% -1.1% 60% 55% -9.7%
≤90d 317 -19.6% -27.2% 42% 37% -14.6%
all 472 -0.8% -10.3% 51% 47% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 47% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 40% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 29% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 24% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses243 / 229
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)472 / 475
History coverage234d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 3¢ 1¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $58 +$49 +84%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $116 −$102 -88%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $52 +$23 +45%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $44 +$3 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $57 −$7 -12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $45 −$4 -10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$12 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $39 −$36 -94%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $53 +$7 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$6 +41%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $27 +$3 +13%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $25 +$24 +95%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$6 +43%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $42 +$7 +18%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$31 -83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 +$28 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $32 +$19 +59%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $16 −$7 -44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $41 +$16 +40%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$10 +52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $7 +$3 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 +$9 +238%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $39 +$32 +83%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $23 +$7 +30%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $22 +$6 +26%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $16 +$4 +25%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 06 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $20 +$10 +49%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $64 +$44 +68%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $17 +$3 +20%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $62 −$4 -7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $14 +$10 +75%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $58 +$7 +12%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $40 +$5 +12%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $34 +$6 +18%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $26 +$2 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $42 +$40 +95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $9 +$21 +226%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $58 +$32 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $10 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $15 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $15 26h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 88¢ $107 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 7¢ $14 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 57¢ $71 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $71 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $3 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $44 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $48 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $0 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $17 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $23 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $5 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $44 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $41 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports 15¢ $6 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $17 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $44 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $22 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 40¢ $4 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $4 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $30 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $10 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 34¢ $10 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $23 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 28¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.87 · official $30.87 · 1348 history records