Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6aba…ce4b other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$59 (+6%) realized +$99 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days−$28
14 days+$145
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$75
sports 16% +$51
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 50% -14.3%
≤30d 19 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 58% +9.1%
≤90d 19 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 58% +9.1%
all 19 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 58% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 58% +9.1%
10% -19.2% 58% -1.4%
15% -27.0% 47% -10.9%
20% -34.2% 42% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$26 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)19 / 26
History coverage13d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 57¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-15%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$38 +124%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$35 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$111 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 34h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $24 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 9d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 11d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 11d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 11d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $102 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.45 · official $251.54 (match) · 54 history records