Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6A 0x6aba…c7da other 59 markets active 4d ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%13W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 74% −$14
politics 16% −$15
other 8% +$29
sports 1% −$35
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.2% 17% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 45 -2.0% -11.3% 24% 16% -9.7%
all 58 -1.7% -11.1% 22% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 12% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 12% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 12% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses13 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage616d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $101 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $88 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $9 +$8 +83%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $88 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $172 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $168 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $82 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 +$6 +83%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 +$4 +46%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$10 +165%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 02 $49 $0 +1%
Predators vs. Lightning Mar 31 $21 +$11 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei Mar 29 $21 +$20 +96%
Golden Knights vs. Jets Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $24 +$21 +89%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $89 +$5 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $13,553 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $34 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 21d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 21d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 22d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 23d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $36 26d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 27d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 27d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 29d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 64¢ $13 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 30d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 30d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 30d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 30d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 36d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 36d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $88 37d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.10 · official $32.10 (match) · 330 history records