Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6aba…ba26 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$84 (+14%) realized +$86 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$11
weather 29% +$69
world 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 33% -14.4%
≤30d 9 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 33% -14.4%
≤90d 21 +8.5% -1.9% 57% 43% -0.2%
all 21 +8.5% -1.9% 57% 43% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 43% -0.2%
10% -11.3% 38% -9.7%
15% -19.8% 24% -18.5%
20% -27.7% 19% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage66d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 45¢ 42¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 13 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 13 $26 +$6 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $36 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 13 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 13 $25 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14? May 13 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13? May 12 $61 +$27 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 19? Apr 19 $15 −$14 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 16 $18 +$60 +328%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 15? Apr 15 $24 −$5 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $27 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $30 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $32 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 37d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 51¢ $34 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $16 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 37d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14? SELL Yes 41¢ $53 37d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $36 38d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 38d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13? SELL Yes 66¢ $88 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.06 · official $24.72 · 46 history records