Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6A 0x6abe…d6a5 crypto 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-0%) realized −$927 · open +$823
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%138W / 122L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day58.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$28,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,835
7 days−$1,707
14 days−$1,611
30 days−$1,762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$2,160
world 23% +$1,352
other 12% +$448
tech 6% +$2,259
finance 5% +$1,037
politics 2% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -47.6% -52.6% 26% 26% -21.1%
≤30d 88 -34.1% -40.4% 41% 30% -15.6%
≤90d 260 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 37% -8.8%
all 260 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 37% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 37% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 27% -17.5%
15% -33.2% 19% -25.5%
20% -39.7% 15% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$189 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$28,014
Realized−$927
Unrealized+$823
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses138 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions74
Markets (closed)260 / 288
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$342
Trades / day58.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 74 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $5,128 $5,199 +$71 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $2,878 $2,978 +$100 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $1,822 $1,991 +$169 (+9%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,543 $1,607 +$64 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 87¢ 92¢ $1,137 $1,202 +$66 (+6%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,059 $1,105 +$46 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $941 $944 +$2 (+0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $839 $915 +$76 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 81¢ 76¢ $682 $641 −$41 (-6%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $526 $596 +$70 (+13%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $560 $562 +$2 (+0%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 92¢ $535 $562 +$27 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $452 $468 +$16 (+4%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $434 $453 +$19 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $304 $379 +$75 (+25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? No 94¢ 91¢ $375 $365 −$10 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $300 $322 +$22 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 59¢ 95¢ $187 $301 +$114 (+61%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $246 $261 +$16 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 47¢ 55¢ $188 $218 +$30 (+16%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 65¢ 69¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $563 −$563 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $293 −$65 -22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $360 −$360 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $871 −$871 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $509 −$155 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1,229 −$1,229 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $427 −$427 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $283 +$297 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $163 +$21 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,924 +$901 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $138 +$41 +30%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $1,529 +$457 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $864 +$332 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$609 +299%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$57 +285%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$75 +75%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $164 +$36 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 94¢ $280 29m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 94¢ $94 41m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 68¢ $136 44m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $1 46m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $1 58m
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $16 1h
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $16 1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $132 1h
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $7 1h
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $100 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $100 1h
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Megaquake by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
US bank failure by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $100 1h
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $200 1h
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $101 1h
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 1h
Will Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,013.70 · official $28,013.73 (match) · 3500 history records