Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6abe…0eca crypto 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate73%180W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day121.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 +0.8% -8.8% 73% 32% -11.2%
≤30d 247 +0.8% -8.8% 73% 32% -11.2%
≤90d 247 +0.8% -8.8% 73% 32% -11.2%
all 247 +0.8% -8.8% 73% 32% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 32% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 15% -19.7%
15% -25.5% 8% -27.4%
20% -32.8% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses180 / 67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day121.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 63¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $0.71 (match) · 682 history records