Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6ac2…99bf
other · 105 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,161 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,160 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized−$3,160
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses55 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)96 / 105
History coverage74d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%
Chart Positions 9 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 78¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 39¢ 54¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+37%)
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam? Yes 56¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 77¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+8%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $17 +$3 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $1 +$256 +25599%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $54 +$76 +141%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $364 +$16 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $132 −$18 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $248 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $198 −$113 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $1,626 −$1,624 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $42 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $980 −$901 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $82 −$70 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $525 −$427 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $18 $0 -2%
Rome: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Apr 22 $4 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 22 $479 −$25 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1,795 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $74 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $630 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $89 +$826 +924%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2,256 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $2,577 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $658 +$9 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1,250 −$820 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $372 +$3 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -60%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 19 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $336 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $752 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $1,760 +$20 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $315 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $484 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$3,160
world 0% −$1
politics 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 47m
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2h
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 71¢ $1 3h
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 10h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 78¢ $5 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $1 11h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $1 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 12h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 99¢ $5 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 7¢ $1 12h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 13h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 15h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 36h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 36h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 36h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $0 37h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 37h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 37h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.5% -38.9% 43% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 7 -32.5% -38.9% 43% 14% -9.4%
≤90d 96 +24.2% +12.3% 57% 12% -18.5%
all 96 +24.2% +12.3% 57% 12% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.3% 12% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.6% 7% -26.3%
15% -8.2% 7% -33.4%
20% -17.2% 6% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.45 · official $16.45 (match) · 2563 history records