Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ac3…3c8b sports 553 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$500 (-3%) realized −$501 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate88%483W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$381
other 26% −$175
weather 7% +$7
politics 1% +$24
world 1% +$14
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -0.9% -10.3% 92% 21% -11.6%
≤30d 62 -0.9% -10.3% 92% 21% -11.6%
≤90d 223 -1.8% -11.2% 91% 22% -12.1%
all 549 -2.4% -11.7% 88% 27% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 27% -12.4%
10% -20.1% 11% -20.8%
15% -27.9% 4% -28.4%
20% -34.9% 2% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$29 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$501
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses483 / 66
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)549 / 553
History coverage178d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$2 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $25 +$2 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$6 +20%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$14 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$9 +13%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $20 +$7 +32%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 100¢ $30 2h
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) BUY Erjavec 44¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $40 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 17h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $20 17h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 91¢ $25 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $30 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $101 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $40 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er BUY Veronika Erjavec 50¢ $20 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $20 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $30 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $30 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 95¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.59 · official $110.59 (match) · 1139 history records