Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ac3…1347 other 532 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$128 (-1%) realized −$106 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate52%270W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$191
7 days−$244
14 days−$122
30 days−$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$193
other 38% −$145
tech 4% +$97
crypto 3% +$25
world 1% −$19
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 38% -17.9%
≤30d 109 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 44% -16.5%
≤90d 278 +4.5% -5.4% 57% 44% -11.3%
all 516 -0.1% -9.6% 52% 36% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 36% -11.4%
10% -18.3% 28% -19.9%
15% -26.2% 24% -27.6%
20% -33.4% 20% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses270 / 246
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions16
Markets (closed)516 / 532
History coverage236d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 93¢ 90¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 40¢ $48 $40 −$8 (-18%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 38¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-12%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+112%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $11 +$89 +785%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $92 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $13 +$87 +650%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $85 +$15 +17%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $89 +$11 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $88 +$12 +13%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $87 +$13 +14%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $86 +$14 +16%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $87 +$12 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $77 +$23 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $80 +$20 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $70 +$30 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $70 +$30 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $84 +$16 +18%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $57 +$43 +76%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $87 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 56m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 23h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 23h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 92¢ $92 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 90¢ $90 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 23h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 85¢ $85 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY No 91¢ $91 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 89¢ $89 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $92 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 88¢ $88 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.40 · official $285.40 (match) · 1174 history records