Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ad7…347a weather 1274 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,289 (+19%) realized +$3,322 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%302W / 942L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day72.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days−$191
14 days+$1,105
30 days+$1,441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$1,492
other 3% −$70
politics 0% +$17
crypto 0% +$13
sports 0% −$16
world 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -25.7% -32.8% 18% 15% -15.4%
≤30d 1004 -12.3% -20.6% 24% 20% -8.1%
≤90d 1244 -15.5% -23.6% 24% 19% -8.5%
all 1244 -15.5% -23.6% 24% 19% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 19% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 16% -17.3%
15% -37.6% 14% -25.2%
20% -43.7% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$5 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized+$3,322
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses302 / 942
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1244 / 1274
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day72.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 1244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Yes 19¢ 82¢ $10 $45 +$34 (+325%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Yes 49¢ 62¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? No 70¢ 69¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $34 $16 −$18 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 39¢ 53¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $5 $8 +$4 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-88%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 320 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$76 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$16 +447%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$41 +1476%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -93%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 14 $27 +$107 +396%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 +$37 +1227%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 14 $36 +$14 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 14 $46 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 14 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 14 $81 +$14 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $38 +$74 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $46 −$40 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$6 -40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +275%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 57m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $25 59m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.67 · official $351.73 (match) · 3500 history records