Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ad7…0128 other 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 231L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$42
sports 23% −$21
politics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
world 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage139d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $734 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $759 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $501 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $132 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $374 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $142 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $149 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $216 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $155 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $240 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $788 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $529 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $433 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $70 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 03 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $304 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $146 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $148 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $774 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $359 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 5h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 6h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 11h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $63 12h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 14h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 15h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 17h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 18h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 20h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 21h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 23h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 24h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 26h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 27h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 42h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $64 45h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 46h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.35 · official $62.35 (match) · 1434 history records