Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:53:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6A 0x6ad8…88cb other 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$740 (-0%) realized −$742 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,254per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$20
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$673
politics 32% −$62
sports 14% −$18
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -13.6% -21.9% 8% 1% -10.8%
all 130 +2.3% -7.5% 22% 13% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 13% -9.9%
10% -16.3% 12% -18.6%
15% -24.4% 12% -26.4%
20% -31.8% 11% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,564) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$19 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$1,480
Realized−$742
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,254
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $874 $877 +$2 (+0%)
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $603 $603 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,314 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,678 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,182 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,937 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,528 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,611 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,168 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 03 $614 +$1 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $816 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,845 −$3 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,850 −$4 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,767 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $1,473 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2,767 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? Apr 28 $806 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $3,359 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,428 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $5,166 −$4 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,450 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $3,198 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $5,071 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,289 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,540 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $603 29m
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $503 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $504 4h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $603 46h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $604 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $604 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $605 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $874 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,470 6d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,472 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,093 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,095 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,448 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,449 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,180 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,182 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,348 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,350 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,354 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,356 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,340 13d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,343 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,345 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,347 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,057 16d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 16d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,168 17d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,170 17d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,167 17d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,168 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,479.54 · official $1,479.54 (match) · 417 history records