Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6adc…beba
sports · 93 markets active 10h ago
0.0score
−$78,117 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$213,402 · open −$15,441
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$94,198
Realized−$213,402
Unrealized−$15,441
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$9,499
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage110d
Avg bet$21,882
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,466
7 days−$49,867
14 days−$13,108
30 days+$38,114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $108,665 $93,366 −$15,299 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $974 $832 −$142 (-15%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+285%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 47¢ 0¢ $19,663 $0 −$19,663 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 22¢ 0¢ $19,628 $0 −$19,628 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 32¢ 0¢ $14,816 $0 −$14,816 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $27,006 +$53,855 +199%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20,087 −$19,628 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $19,975 −$19,663 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14,999 −$14,816 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15,215 −$15,215 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20,001 +$15,214 +76%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $15,394 −$15,394 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $18,866 −$18,866 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15,354 −$15,354 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20,000 +$36,759 +184%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $22,236 +$53,858 +242%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 24 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $552 +$360 +65%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $84 +$315 +374%
Will Drake feature Central Cee on ICEMAN? May 16 $146 −$146 -100%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 16 $3,003 −$3,003 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $4,250 +$16,500 +388%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 03 $2,900 −$1,234 -43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $175,682 +$164,650 +94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $1,805 +$3,458 +192%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $10,094 +$4,459 +44%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Apr 27 $20,001 −$20,001 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 27 $9,997 −$9,997 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $5,593 −$5,593 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 27 $114,631 +$77,127 +67%
LoL: RED Academy vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Re Apr 24 $10,002 −$10,002 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - Apr 21 $3,723 +$10,118 +272%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game Apr 21 $5,000 +$4,581 +92%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $8,871 −$6,726 -76%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $3,811 +$4,900 +129%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 20 $19,913 −$19,913 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 20 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin Apr 20 $9,968 +$7,682 +77%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Spirit (+2.5) Apr 19 $29,999 +$30,051 +100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $43,551 −$23,734 -54%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $9,138 +$9,495 +104%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 16 $10,018 −$10,018 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Apr 16 $102 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Apr 16 $100,269 −$100,269 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage Apr 16 $10,013 −$10,013 -100%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 16 $14,837 −$9,926 -67%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Apr 16 $10,055 −$10,055 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 16 $5,915 −$5,915 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Apr 16 $99,686 −$99,686 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 16 $1,426 −$1,328 -93%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 16 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 16 $9,731 −$9,731 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Apr 16 $24,830 −$24,830 -100%
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 16 $3,482 −$3,482 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% −$542,017
world 12% +$89,021
finance 10% +$221,965
other 6% +$3,793
politics 1% −$278
crypto 0% −$1,328
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $3,397 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $9 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $58 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $9 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,000 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $669 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $371 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $70 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $437 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $554 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $14 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $17 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $242 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $9 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $14 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $7,900 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $388 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $7,900 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $257 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $670 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +152.9% +128.8% 22% 22% -77.1%
≤30d 16 +121.3% +100.3% 38% 38% -17.2%
≤90d 84 +6.5% -3.7% 32% 32% -41.5%
all 91 +18.6% +7.3% 37% 37% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.3% 37% -22.3%
10% -2.9% 37% -29.7%
15% ← realistic here -12.3% 36% -36.5%
20% -20.9% 35% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94,198.34 · official $94,197.77 (match) · 3500 history records