Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6A 0x6add…6992 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$366 (+21%) realized +$421 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$426
other 35% −$54
crypto 11% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +23.5% +11.7% 62% 58% +11.1%
≤30d 26 +23.5% +11.7% 62% 58% +11.1%
≤90d 26 +23.5% +11.7% 62% 58% +11.1%
all 26 +23.5% +11.7% 62% 58% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.7% 58% +11.1%
10% ← realistic here +1.0% 58% +0.4%
15% -8.7% 58% -9.3%
20% -17.7% 54% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$58 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$421
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $160 $106 −$54 (-34%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 +$111 +206%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $166 +$116 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $51 −$17 -33%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $24 −$17 -70%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $51 +$72 +142%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $51 +$55 +108%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $149 −$147 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $131 −$129 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$31 +79%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $102 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 17 $60 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $66 −$65 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$114 +112%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 +$71 +89%
Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ shots Jun 17 $40 −$39 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $91 +$150 +165%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $34 +$24 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $163 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $165 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $282 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 29¢ $34 3h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 5¢ $7 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $51 3h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 16¢ $24 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $123 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $166 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $54 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $106 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 41¢ $51 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $149 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 47¢ $51 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $131 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $174 12h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 58¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $27 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 16h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $51 17h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) BUY Minaur 51¢ $51 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.48 · official $125.30 (match) · 49 history records