Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6A 0x6add…ce5d crypto 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-3%) realized −$132 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate69%65W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$145
14 days−$151
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$50
other 31% −$117
sports 2% +$18
world 2% −$1
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -4.6% -13.6% 72% 50% -12.6%
≤30d 94 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 47% -12.7%
≤90d 94 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 47% -12.7%
all 94 -7.3% -16.1% 69% 47% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 47% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 10% -21.0%
15% -31.5% 5% -28.7%
20% -38.2% 3% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses65 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)94 / 111
History coverage12d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? No 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+77%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $5 $0 +10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $130 +$6 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $133 +$10 +8%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 +$12 +388%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $111 +$5 +4%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -41%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $18 +$12 +64%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $2 +$2 +89%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $113 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$8 -32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $373 −$107 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $97 −$38 -39%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $59 −$38 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $133 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $139 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $164 −$12 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $93 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$4 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 91¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in BUY 7¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $20 23h
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $102 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $5 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 85¢ $10 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $130 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 49¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Wi BUY 11¢ $2 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 84¢ $5 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $15 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 93¢ $117 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $116 4d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $111 4d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.52 · official $275.49 (match) · 451 history records